It has been officially confirmed that Asia has become the second continent to cross 10 million cases of COVID-19, behind Latin America. The total worldwide cases have crossed 40 million people, with deaths at 1.4 million. Compared to the Spanish flu, which killed over 50 million people worldwide, this might not seem like a lot of people, but the Spanish flu had 4 different waves, and occurred in 1918, towards the end of World War 1. This meant there were lots of people living in unsanitary conditions, with vaccination only discovered in vague terms just over a century earlier when science was not as developed as it is now. In our times, with so much scientific advice, and so many methods of keeping ourselves safe, a number like 40 million cases is insane.
Vaccination was first developed by Edward Jenner in 1796 with the vaccine to smallpox (the world's first and only eradicated disease). He observed, throughout his life, that people who were infected with cowpox were immune to smallpox. He tested this by taking a young boy, infecting him with cowpox, and then exposing him to smallpox. When he did not exhibit any symptoms, his suspicions were confirmed: he had invented the world's first vaccine. I have previously talked about a vaccine's path of action, but here is a quick refresher:
The patient is inoculated with the vaccine, which may contain, for example, a dead or inactive version of the virus that is being targeted.
The patient's immune system use trial and error to create the correct antibodies/antitoxins to combat the dead/inactive version of the virus.
When the patient encounters the virus again, they will not exhibit symptoms because their immune system has already prepared the antibodies to defend against it.
The patient has the virus, but none of the symptoms, so transmission of the virus is slowed.
Over the last few months, various vaccines have been worked on. One vaccine being produced in the UK, developed by Oxford University in collaboration with AstraZeneca, has seen a hike in confidence as it's efficacy has been verified by researchers in Bristol. But the story doesn't end there. Even if we do have a vaccine that provides immunity to COVID-19, it will take months to produce enough units, and then more time to distribute it across the world. Best case scenario, I think that we will see a vaccine being distributed by the summer of 2021.
Vaccines have a long process to get approved - there are around 6 different steps that they go through normally. First is the research stage. Here, the scientists find possible vaccines which they can potentially use. Second, comes the preclinical trials. This is where the scientists test the potential vaccines in mice to test their efficacy and if the vaccine is safe to use. Then comes the multiple stages of clinical trials, with increasing populations. This is where the real data comes in - how effective is the vaccine? Are there any side effects? All of these questions are answered here. The last 2 stages, approval and manufacturing are the simplest. The scientists present their vaccine for approval, and if it is approved then the mass manufacturing begins.
This whole process takes decades.
The fact that scientists could do so much in such a short time is incredible. Hopefully, multiple vaccines will get approved to ensure the maximum amount of inoculation as possible.
Either way, COVID-19 is not going anywhere. With Slough going into Tier 2 and South Yorkshire going into Tier 3, there have been calls for short circuit breaker lockdowns to try and set the virus' spread back. But after the mayor of Greater Manchester struggled against the Government about going into Tier 3, how many other regions will accept the stricter restrictions without a fight? To truly combat this virus, we need to all come together and follow the rules. If we don't, the number of cases will continue rising at an exponential level, with deaths close behind. The R number (click here for an explanation about the R number) is currently around 1.6. If we don't get it back down, the cases will just keep on rising unstoppably.
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