You may have noticed that over the last few weeks, life has been steadily returning back to normal, save from some new additions, such as face masks and social distancing. Shops have reopened, schools are back in full swing, group gatherings are happening left, right and centre. But this might not last for much longer. With the number of cases steadily increasing, and the number of deaths soon to follow, we may be heading for a second national lockdown. Yes, the Government will do everything and anything before they introduce a second national lockdown, but it is a likely possibility and is becoming more likely every day that passes.
But just how bad is the picture right now, and how bad can it get? With new information coming in suggesting that the R0 rate is now above 1, ranging from 1 to 1.7 depending on the are, the outlook isn't looking too good. There will always be a sort of lag between the number of cases going up and the number of deaths going up, so though it might now seem as if the situation isn't too bad, in 2 or so weeks, it may just be as bad as it was back in April or May. Despite this, there may be some good news. The world's scientists are working as hard as possible to give us a vaccine that is efficient and safe, and the WHO is saying that a vaccine should be available for mass inoculation in mid-2021.
Well, one of the major reasons for the increase in cases is the opening of schools across the UK's four countries. There have already been many reports of schools having to send whole years home due to one or two people testing positive and spreading coronavirus to the rest of the school. In my experience, the bubbles are mostly kept separate, as they should be, and everyone is wearing a face covering. Even though people are following the rules, unfortunately, in some places, like corridors, it is incredibly hard to stay separate. What is the point in having bubbles and keeping us separate, if we just interact anyway? It isn't like we need to talk to someone for them to infect us with coronavirus, so why are the teachers and the Government making sure that we are not safer? In fact, apart from over 60s, teenagers and students are the biggest issues, because they are the ones who will meet the most people in the shortest time span.
On the other hand, schools have taken a plethora of protective measures in order to keep everyone safe, such as staggered breaks and lunches, designating toilets for each year, making teachers wear face masks and shields when helping students. I believe that, with time, if schools are not shut down, these rules will evolve to reflect the current situation, whether this becomes more serious or more relaxed. I think that if the schools become too unsafe, then measures will be taken to ensure that both teachers and students are safe.
But turning away from the schools and looking at a different part of the current developments that are unfolding shows us that we may be close to a working, approved vaccine. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine being developed now was paused due to a potential side effect that was reported but is now back in full swing. As well as this, countries across the world are putting money into a global vaccine plan called COVAX, which plans to ensure that every country, high and low income, gets equal access to the vaccines.
As a best-case scenario, vaccines can be distributed in mid-2021, but the most likely outcome is that a successful vaccine will pass all of the trials and get approved by Spring 2021, and mass vaccination will take place in the Autumn. By then, though, hopefully, COVID-19 takes a back seat, and we can all push past the pandemic that has been pestering our population for so long.
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