Looking to the future...

Europe spent a large part of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic as the epicentre, the largest centre of infection of the world, but now that most countries here have managed to get their infection rates relatively low and the daily infections (for the most part) are under 100, we can begin looking to the future. Specifically, is herd immunity a reachable, realistic goal? Or are we better off waiting it out in safety until a vaccine hits the global scene?

Herd immunity is a term that was thrown around a lot a month or two ago when the Government was deciding on the best strategy for dealing with the pandemic. You may recall the meaning of this scientific term: herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of disease due to the majority of a population being immune to it, whether that is by previous exposure and immune action or vaccination. Herd immunity is accepted to be reached at or around 90%, but it can go into effect at percentages as low as 50%.

The purpose of herd immunity, and why it is so important, is because it helps protect those who are not vaccinated or have a compromised immune system like elderly people or babies. A good example of how herd immunity helps - if 8 out of 10 people are vaccinated against a virus, and one person gets the virus, it cannot spread as ferociously as it may have done if 0 out of 10 are vaccinated since most of them are immune, so it hits a roadblock in the form of the vaccine. The situation we are in, though, concerns billions of people, not 10. The WHO predicts that only 3% of people in the world are immune to COVID-19. Even in London alone, roughly 17% of the population is immune to coronavirus. That is a meagre amount in comparison to what is needed for herd immunity.

In Sweden, a country which, from the start, aimed for herd immunity, has experienced potentially the worst case of COVID-19 in Europe; it has had significantly higher infection rates and death rates than other countries. This begs the question: has their strategy worked? In short, the answer is no. The best way to tell if herd resistance has been reached is antibody testing.

I have already mentioned some of the results of this testing above - only 17% of London's population have antibodies. In Stockholm, only 7.3% of them exhibit antibodies. This tells us that overall, their strategy has not worked since under 10% of people are immune to COVID. In my opinion, herd immunity is something that will take years to begin to exhibit itself. It is going to take a long, long time for us to develop enough immunity for it. Waiting for herd immunity could do more harm than it could help - with under 6 million cases worldwide, waiting even longer could cause a devastating number of deaths.

In my opinion, the best choice here is to wait for a vaccine to be developed. If we continue with the current programme and rules, then we can avoid countless deaths and disasters - this will lead to the best possible outcome. But we cannot forget that constant testing and tracing is also incredibly important for the continued protection of the population. In the meantime, all we can do is stay safe, stay aware and be careful.

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