Testing. The one thing that we need, but don't have enough of. Despite all of the worthless words about testing goals and hopes for future testing, we have not seen the amount of testing for COVID-19 that is needed to start to get ahead of this virus. If there continue to be testing shortages like now, we will always be one step behind, constantly playing catch up against an invisible villain. New reports show that with the increase in cases among the younger population (due to the reopening of schools and universities), the demand for testing among young people has skyrocketed: over 200,000 under-9s were tested for coronavirus.
But in the last few days, thousands of people have apparently been given false positives or negatives. If people are given the all-clear for coronavirus by a test that was inaccurate, they may go back to work or school, and then infect all of their peers. On the other hand, if they are given a false positive, they would self isolate for 2 weeks for no reason, going through what some would argue is a mentally straining process for no reason.
Firstly, what is the current state of testing in the UK and across the world? Well, in the UK, the current testing rate is around 400,000 tests per week. This is about the highest it has been since May. On the one hand, this is a good sign, as testing has been ramped up like never before. But, equally, if cases are increasing at the rates that they are, testing needs to be upped too. Unfortunately, if we cannot test at the rate that cases are spreading, then we will never see the whole picture - whole local outbreaks may slip through the cracks of the testing filter. If this is the case, then we will never be able to catch every outbreak and react with appropriate measures. For example, Cardiff, Swansea and Leeds are facing local lockdowns due to an incredible rise in coronavirus cases. If testing is not as fast and as widespread as it needs to be, we cannot react as we have done for these places, and soon we might have a second large national outbreak on our hands.
In other countries, the situation is looking similar. In the US, where the number of cases crossed 7 million (20% of the world's amount of COVID-19 cases), they have tested 325 people per 1000. This is a good number, but at the rate that the cases are increasing, testing in the US needs to be higher. It took the US around 25 days to go from 6 million to 7 million cases. At this rate, the US will hit 10 million cases before long. In Europe, the case numbers have reached 3.1 million. Russia has the highest tests at 33 million, and the UK is second with 16 million tests.
But a more important fact is that there is no point in ramping up the testing we are doing if the tests are not accurate. In the last few days, the amount of false positives and false negatives has been exposed. One particular laboratory, for example, has been accused of using inaccurate software that has given false results for thousands of tests. The biggest issue though is that these false tests are a real threat to our country, workplaces and health.
A false positive is more of a mental issue, as it means that they have to go through 2 weeks of isolation all for no reason. As well as this, it adds cases to the total case numbers that aren't meant to be there, so over time, the data becomes more and more skewed as false data adds up. In addition to the mental health problems caused by 5 months of lockdown and the stress of returning back to a potentially unsafe workplace, 2 weeks of isolation can be incredibly detrimental.
More damaging than a false positive though is a false negative. If someone receives a false negative, they get the all-clear without being properly checked. This could lead to the unseen spread of coronavirus, leading to exactly what I was talking about above - the cracks in the system. If one person receives a false negative, they may spread it to all of their coworkers, or peers. This is definitely something we want to avoid, and in order to do so, every lab needs to ensure that there are no mistakes, no errors and that the software used is as accurate as can be. There is no point having all of these restrictions if people with coronavirus end up spreading it anyway.
In conclusion, optimising testing is complicated. There are lots of things that need to be solved - for example, the time that tests take to be delivered and analysed. If the Government can solve the problems that I have mentioned here, then maybe we can have finally get ahead of our enemy.
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