If you turn away from the UK and our own COVID problems, the likely candidate for your attention would be the US. With the presidential election looming, President Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 along with his wife and First Lady Melania Trump. So what impact would this have on the election - more specifically, what if President Trump suffers a severe case and cannot partake in the election? As well as this, what is the likelihood that he does suffer a severe case? With the Republican campaign suffering due to Trump's isolation, could this give the Democrats the lead they need to win?
The biggest problem for the Americans in general is, what happens in the White House if Trump becomes incapacitated to perform his duty. There have been precedents for this kind of scenario, for example when President Reagen gave his vice-president temporary power due to his cancer surgery in 1985. In this case, President Trump's power would be transferred to Mike Pence, the current vice-president, to become acting president. There is also a chain of power set out in the case of a mass COVID outbreak in the White House. Unfortunately, it looks like we might see that the chain of command is used, due to the fast-increasing number of people testing positive around President Trump and other members of the White House: currently 9 people have tested positive so far. With officials carrying out tracing of the President's actions over the last week or so to find everyone who may have been infected, there is no doubt that this number will go up.
So what will happen if Trump is still incapacitated when the election rolls around in a month's time? Despite the fact that Mike Pence would initially become acting president, there is no certainty that he would become the Republican candidate. The only way this would happen is if the Republicans decided on Mr Pence as the new presidential candidate, but this has never ever happened before. But despite all of his illnesses, Trump's name will, most likely, remain on the ballot.
Another option is to delay the election. This, unlikely as it is, requires a majority in both Houses of Congress. The President himself would have very little impact on this decision, and since the Democrats control the House of Representatives, there is little to no chance of the election being delayed. This means that either Trump is will be there for November 3rd or he may lose his shot at a second term, and with Trump's current health, he hits most, if not all, risk groups for coronavirus.
Trump is 74 years old and weighs 111kg. He is 6 feet 3 inches, which makes him obese according to his BMI. This, combined with his age, makes him particularly at risk for experiencing a severe case of COVID-19. Looking closer to home, Boris Johnson has been told recently that one of the reasons that his COVID case was more severe than others was due to him being slightly overweight. Due to Trump's physical state, he may be more at risk than others. So overall, the likelihood of him enduring a more critical than average case of coronavirus is significant. In my opinion, Trump's name will be on the ballot paper on the 3rd of November, but he might not be able to take office straight away.
Back to the election itself, would Trump contracting COVID-19 affect the outcome of the election? Most certainly. With Trump and Melania out of action for at least 10 days, the campaigning power of the Republicans has been greatly reduced. Fortunately for Trump and his campaign, he is (as of now) not missing any major events, such as debates, but he is missing multiple rallies and meetings that could win him valuable votes with the American public. This definitely gives the Democrats a lead, and it gives them the opportunity to show the American people that they can follow the science surrounding COVID and stay safe, as well as showing the public how Joe Biden doesn't view Trump as an enemy - he recently recalled all ads that have any negativity toward President Trump. This means that, in addition to Trump's lack of campaigning power for the next 2 weeks, the Democrats can use this time to gain a meaningful advantage and tip the scales that have been so stable since the beginning.
In conclusion, the American election will be severely affected by Trump and his isolation, if it is just that he will be missing many meaningful campaigning opportunities. Chances are that the Republicans will not remove Trump's name from the ballot paper, even if he will not be able to take power straight away. In the case of a severe case of COVID-19, Trump might end up transferring his power to Mike Pence temporarily, but with the growing outbreak of coronavirus in the White House, the power of the President may end up getting shuffled around a lot.
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed, please leave a like, comment and share with your friends!
See you next week.
PS. If you enjoy reading my blog, please go follow my Instagram, @real_anish_vaddiraju, where I will post updates about my blog. Thanks!